Global Warming is Not About to Cool

I look out my window and I see the dryness, Southwest Florida changing into Arizona. No cactus here, but there are palm trees turning brown, fronds withering and dropping, wetlands drying up.

And the heat is unyielding. Most people stay indoors whenever they can, soaking up the AC, driving to their jobs, then ducking back into the AC. Many who work out-of-doors are migrants.

Part of the cause is greenhouse emissions, mostly carbon dioxide, that hold in the heat and gradually change the climate. What can be done about is subject to debate, increasingly contentious and highly political. What few deny is that burning of fossil fuels – coal, petroleum and natural gas – is a big contributor to the problem. Much of the burning takes place in power plants, home heating and transportation vehicles.

The prognosis for the future is grim. Near-term the NOAA says we can expect more above-average temperatures in 2026-27, accompanied by lousy air quality, greater storm frequency and more intense hurricanes – bad news for SWFL.

Longer-term forecasts are even more discouraging. The Climate Action Tracker says there is no way we can hold temperature increases within the 1.5-degree-Celsius limit set by the Paris Accords. Most experts say we have already exceeded that.

How are we doing right now?

• Coal mining is actually increasing. Global production grew 2% in 2024, according to the International Energy Agency, and China is building an average of two new coal plants a week. India, a major producer, says to meet energy demand it will not be coal free until 2070 at the earliest.

• Petroleum production continues to rise. OPEC sees no reduction in the foreseeable future, with growth forecast to increase by 1.38 million barrels a day in 2026. BP just made a huge deep-water oil discovery off the Brazilian coast and, along with Chevron, has jettisoned much of its work on solar and wind. Both Ford and GM have slashed spending on electric vehicles as government subsidies continue to dry up.

• Explosive growth of artificial intelligence will be another contributor. Power consultant Deloitte says requirements for AI alone could boost electricity demands by 30-fold by 2035. As early as 2026, the Energy Information Administration forecasts 4.3 trillion kilowatts will be needed. Much of it will come from burning natural gas.

• All of this is happening at a time when everybody seems to be bailing out of emission-less energy. Although nuclear power is making a comeback, most other non-emission sources are taking a hit. The Trump administration has slashed subsidies for everything green, and solar and wind installations are forecast to drop by 17% and 20% respectively over the next decade. Once-promising things like hydrogen fuel cells have been put on the back burner. Airbus, BP and Air Products say development will take much longer and cost much more than originally expected.

Meanwhile temperatures continue to rise.

And there’s no reason to expect any real change. Moderating fossil fuel use or seriously developing carbon capture or imposing some kind of carbon tax is unlikely to happen.

Instead the Trump administration is doubling down on denial. Drawing on earlier findings that CO2 is different from the “air pollutants” Congress authorized the EPA to regulate, those now in power claim the EPA has no right to block greenhouse emissions.

The deck is completely stacked against any sort of relief.

So turn up the AC and try to stay cool.